How To Bet On Underdogs in Sports Betting
An underdog is a team or player expected to lose. Sportsbooks set the odds against them, but sometimes, they pull off the win. Betting on underdogs can be risky, but when done right, it pays more than betting on the favorite.
Not every underdog is worth the risk. Some teams are underestimated because of public bias, misleading stats, or recent losses. Others are simply not good enough to win. Knowing the difference helps you avoid bad bets.
This guide will show you how to bet smarter on underdogs. You’ll learn how to read odds, find value, and avoid common mistakes. We’ll cover bankroll management, betting strategies, and real examples of underdog wins. By the end, you’ll know when to take the risk and when to walk away.
What Is an Underdog?
Simply put, An underdog is the team or player expected to lose. Since fewer people bet on them, sportsbooks offer higher payouts to balance the action.
How Sportsbooks Decide Who’s the Underdog
Sportsbooks don’t pick underdogs randomly. There’s a reason behind it. If you understand how they set the odds, you can find good betting opportunities.
Sportsbooks look at a few key things:
- Team strength – Weaker teams are usually underdogs.
- Matchup – If one side is much stronger, the other becomes the underdog.
- Injuries – A team missing key players might shift to underdog status.
- Betting trends – If everyone is betting on one side, sportsbooks adjust the odds.
Why Underdogs Can Be a Smart Bet?
People love betting on favorites, which sometimes makes the odds unfair. This means sportsbooks raise the payout for underdogs, even when they have a better shot than expected.
Here’s how favorites and underdogs compare:
| Category | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Odds Format | Shown with a minus sign (-) | Shown with a plus sign (+) |
| Example Odds | -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | +200 (bet $100 to win $200) |
| Win Rate | More likely to win | Less likely to win |
| Payouts | Smaller, since favorites win more | Bigger, since underdogs win less |
| Risk | Lower | Higher |
Key Factors to Consider When Betting on Underdogs
Not all underdogs are worth betting on. Some are just outmatched, while others are undervalued by sportsbooks. The key is knowing which ones have a real shot.
Here’s what to look for.
- Team Form and Momentum – A losing streak doesn’t always mean a team is bad. Look at how they’ve been losing. Have they been competitive? Have they faced tough opponents?
Example: In the 2024 NFL season, the Detroit Lions had a strong 15–2 record but suffered a significant loss to the Washington Commanders in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Despite their overall success, this loss highlighted vulnerabilities that strategic bettors could have anticipated. - Injuries and Roster Changes – Star players missing a game can shift the odds, but depth matters. A solid bench or a motivated backup can keep an underdog competitive.
Example: In the 2024 NFL season, the Detroit Lions’ defense faced challenges due to injuries to key players like Alim McNeill and Carlton Davis III. Despite these setbacks, the team continued to perform at a high level, showcasing their depth and resilience - Defensive Strength – A solid defense in most sports can keep an underdog in the game. Even if they struggle to score, a strong defense can limit a favorite’s chances, making it harder for them to cover a big spread. Look for underdogs that can slow the game down and frustrate the opponent.
Example: In the 2023 NCAA Tournament, San Diego State made the Final Four as an underdog thanks to its elite defense. Its ability to control pace and limit scoring helped it upset higher-seeded teams. - Schedule and Motivation – Some games matter more than others. An underdog fighting for a playoff spot, playing a rival, or trying to prove themselves in a high-profile matchup might perform better than expected. On the other hand, favorites might overlook weaker opponents, especially if they have a bigger game ahead.
Example: Late in the 2023 MLB season, the San Diego Padres, out of playoff contention, upset the playoff-bound Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers had already secured their spot and weren’t fully motivated, leading to an underdog win. - Oddsmaker Adjustments – Sportsbooks don’t just set odds based on team strength. They adjust based on who is betting. If an underdog’s odds improve, it means pro bettors see value. Public betting often inflates favorites, making underdogs a better deal. If the line moves in favor of an underdog, it’s worth a closer look.
Tip: In UFC 299 (March 2024), Sean O’Malley opened as an underdog, but heavy betting on him changed the odds. He won, proving the sharp money was right.
How Different Bet Types Work for Underdogs
Before betting on underdogs, you need to understand the three main types of bets: moneyline, spread, and totals. Each one works differently, and underdogs offer unique opportunities in all of them.
Moneyline: Betting on the Underdog to Win
A moneyline bet is the simplest option. You’re picking which team wins outright. Since underdogs are expected to lose, their payouts are higher.
For example, if the Chicago Bears are +250, a $100 bet wins $250 if they win. Meanwhile, if the Green Bay Packers are -300, you’d have to bet $300 to win $100.
If you bet an underdog on a +200-money line, you just need to win the bet one out of three times to break even. If you do the math, underdog bets aren’t so scary after all.
Tip: Bet the moneyline when the underdog has a real chance to win outright. It pays more but is riskier since they must win.
Spread: Betting on the Underdog to Keep It Close
A spread bet gives the underdog extra points to work with. You win the bet if the underdog wins outright or loses within the spread.
If the Bears are +6.5, they can lose by 6 points or less or win outright, and you still win your bet.
If the Packers are -6.5, they need to win by at least 7 points to cover the spread.
For some reason, many people associate betting on underdogs with plenty of risk. Yes, you’re wagering on a team that isn’t going to win most of the time, but that’s not what sports betting is about. At least in many cases.
Remember, when you bet on a point spread, the team you’re betting on does not need to win but only cover the spread.
Tip: Bet the spread when the underdog is likely to keep the game close but may not win. This is safer because they can lose within the spread and still cover, but payouts are smaller.
Totals: Betting on the Game’s Total Score
A totals bet (Over/Under) isn’t about picking a winner. Instead, you’re betting on whether the total points scored in the game will go over or under a set number.
If the total is 44.5 points, betting the Over means you need both teams to combine for 45 or more points to win.
Betting the Under means they need to score 44 or fewer points.
Underdogs often impact totals because they can either slow down the game or force high-scoring comebacks.
Proven Strategies for Underdog Bettors
Many bettors lose money on underdogs by picking teams with almost no chance of winning. Profitable sports betting requires strategy. Astute bettors look for patterns, market inefficiencies, and hidden advantages.
Here are some proven techniques to help you find the best underdog bets.
Target Overhyped Favorites
Public perception often inflates the odds on favorites, making their opponents a better bet. This happens when a team is on a winning streak, has star players, or is heavily covered in the media. Books adjust lines based on where the money is going, not just team strength.
Strategy: Look for favorites with inflated odds due to public hype. If the underdog has been competitive and the favorite has been overperforming, take the points or a small moneyline bet.
Bet Against Fatigued Teams
Fatigue affects performance, especially in back-to-back games or after long road trips. Teams that are tired make more mistakes, giving underdogs a better shot. Sportsbooks adjust for this, but often not enough.
Strategy: Find underdogs facing a team on short rest or coming off a long stretch of games. These situations create a physical and mental edge for the underdog.
Find Underdogs with Mispriced Odds (Implied Probability)
Sportsbooks assign odds based on expected win probability. Sometimes, they miscalculate, giving underdogs a better chance than their odds suggest.
Strategy: Convert odds into implied probability using this formula: Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100) for underdogs. If your research suggests a team has a higher win chance than the implied probability, it’s a value bet.
Take Advantage of Overlooked Matchups
Oddsmakers set lines based on stats, but they don’t always account for bad stylistic matchups. Some teams struggle against specific playstyles, and sharp bettors exploit these weaknesses.
Strategy: Identify underdogs that match up well against a favorite’s weaknesses. A strong defensive team facing a high-scoring favorite or a running-heavy offense against a weak run defense are good examples.
Exploit Live Betting
Live betting creates opportunities when an underdog starts strong but is still undervalued. Books adjust lines quickly, but not always correctly. If an underdog keeps the game close early, they can still offer value mid-game.
Strategy: Watch games where an underdog is competing well in the first half. If they’re keeping pace and the in-game line still favors the favorite heavily, take the adjusted underdog spread or moneyline for better value.
Bet Underdogs After a Blowout Loss
Sportsbooks and the public often overreact to recent results, especially blowout losses. If an underdog gets crushed in their last game, their odds may be inflated in the next matchup, even if the loss wasn’t a true reflection of their ability.
Strategy: Look for underdogs coming off a blowout loss (20+ points in the NFL/NBA, multiple runs in MLB, or lopsided rounds in UFC). If the team was missing key players or faced a bad matchup, their next game could offer better betting value than the odds suggest.
Best Sports for Betting on Underdogs
Underdogs aren’t worth betting on in every sport. Some leagues see upsets happen more often, while others heavily favor favorites.
Here are the sports where underdogs have the best betting value.
Betting NFL Underdogs
It’s rare that the public influences betting odds movement, but this is precisely what happens in NFL football.
It’s the most wagered sport in the US, and because of how much they bet, especially on high-profile games, their bets need to be accounted for.
Most people wager on favorites, and odds move accordingly, making the NFL one of the best sports for betting underdogs.
Tip: Home underdogs aren’t a guaranteed winning strategy, but they’ve been one of the most profitable NFL bets. They’re especially valuable against popular teams that attract heavy public betting, like the Patriots.
College Basketball – March Madness Upsets
March Madness is one of the best times to bet underdogs. Lower-seeded teams pull off upsets every year, and the single-elimination format creates unpredictable results.
Public bettors favor big-name schools, pushing the odds higher on overlooked teams.
UFC – Styles Make Fights
In the UFC, underdogs win more often than in most sports because styles play a big role. Wrestlers can neutralize strikers, and one mistake can end a fight.
The betting public often overvalues hype, making underdog lines more profitable.
MLB Underdogs
Baseball has more randomness than most sports, and starting pitchers heavily impact the odds.
If an underdog gets strong pitching, they can win even against top teams. Since MLB has so many games, favorites don’t always bring their best effort, creating underdog opportunities.
College Football – Live Betting Comebacks
College football underdogs struggle more than in the NFL, but they create great live betting value.
Big favorites often start slow, leading to inflated live odds on underdogs. If a heavy underdog keeps the game close early, their adjusted odds can be worth a second look.
Top Betting Sites For Underdogs Bets In Sports
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|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
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Bet Smarter, React Faster, Win More
Most people bet on favorites, but underdogs can offer better value when the odds are off. The public often inflates lines on popular teams, leaving smart bettors with better opportunities on the other side. The key is finding underdogs with a real shot.
Underdogs won’t win every time, but they don’t need to. Smart underdog betting is about picking spots where the odds don’t match reality. Research, patience, and discipline matter more than chasing big payouts.
The best underdog bets aren’t obvious. That’s what makes them profitable.
