Advanced NFL Statistics for Betting
If you’re only betting on NFL games by looking at win-loss records and total points, you’re missing the full story. You want to use advanced NFL stats to bet and uncover how teams really perform—beyond what the scoreboard shows.
Stats like DVOA, EPA per play, and success rate can tell you which teams are truly efficient and which ones are getting lucky. Understanding these numbers can help you spot overrated favorites and find underdogs with a real chance to win or cover.
In this guide, we’ll break down the most important advanced NFL statistics for betting. You’ll learn what they mean, why they matter, and how to use them to make smarter picks. If you’re serious about winning more NFL bets, these are tools you need to know.
NFL Advanced Stats – Win Probability
NFL game win probability added is one of the coolest new age NFL advanced stats tools in the game today. The metric has been utilized for baseball for quite some time but was only recently introduced to football. It doesn’t help us much in terms of pre-match handicapping or player evaluation but is an excellent tool for evaluating probabilities for in-game situations.
NFL Win Probability estimates the chances of a team winning based on the game situation. For instance, if 3 points favor a team is up by 10 in the 3rd quarter with 8 minutes remaining, and they have the ball on their opponents’ 45-yard line with 7 yards to go on 3rd down – they would have a win probability of 0.894 or 89.4%.
Their model uses the Vegas odds, score differential, along the quarter amount of time remaining, yard line, down, and field position to calculate win probability. Several sites utilize this model, but the one available at Pro Football Reference is the simplest and most straightforward. The analytic is broken down even further here. Win Probability is excellent for analyzing halftime lines and has its use in live betting markets as well.
NFL Savant – Advanced Statistic Central
NFLSavant.com should be the go-to site for players when it comes to NFL advanced statistics. The best part about NFL Savant is that it’s entirely free and their interface is remarkably straightforward. Football betting statistics are available for every team and every play.
They’re not so heavy on individual player performances in comparison to PFF, but as far as relevant statistics surrounding play calling and coaching, there is no better option. Users can break down formations for both offense and defense and will be able to search and form own their customizable football stats for betting. This makes NFL Savant one of the best sites for NFL stats. A perfect example is its offensive rushing plays analytics which can be used in a variety of NFL bets.
NFL 2017 Offensive Rushing Plays Statistics
Pro Football Focus – Best Site For NFL Analytics
Pro Football Focus, abbreviated as PFF, is one of the best sites for NFL stats, for both the NFL and college sports. The service costs about $40 a season but is easily worth it, as it’s a valuable tool for any sports bettor. PFF offers a host of different statistics and some of the best minds in football. Most impressively is their grading system, which grades every player in the league and each team’s offensive, defensive and special team’s performance. Their grading system is the gold standard in the industry and is extremely thorough.
We won’t go over each of their individual stats in this article because we could go forever describing each of their metrics. They break down every play of every NFL game to give players the best insight into each contest and skill level of each player. Their ranking system is excellent concerning evaluation offensive and defense matchups and offers plenty of value in handicapping player and team propositions. If there is only one tool for football stats for betting that you’re going to purchase for football season, make it Pro Football Focus.
NFL Game Pass – Film Studies
Previously marketed as NFL Game Rewind, NFL Game Pass is an excellent tool for bettors who want to increase their knowledge of the game through film study. Game Pass allows bettors the ability to view full games in their entirety, on-demand, as soon as they are finished being played. Film study is an excellent tool for handicappers. For $99.99 per season, subscribers will be able to watch these rewinds all season long. They will gain access to coaches’ film that, including the All-22 and EndZone camera angles.
The best available feature at Game Pass has to be their condensed games. These cut out the commercials and stoppages between plays, allowing bettors to watch entire NFL games in about 30 minutes. The service may seem pricey at $99.99 per season, but if you’re betting a considerable amount each week on football, it’s well worth the price. If game film study helps you win just one or two bets a year, the service has paid for itself.
NFL Advanced Analytics Conclusion
Betting on the NFL is all about using real data to find an edge, and the advanced statistics give you a clearer picture of how teams are actually performing.
Now that you know what these stats are, where to find them, and how to use them, you can start spotting the value others miss. Whether you’re betting spreads, totals, or props, advanced stats help you make more informed, smarter bets.
The NFL is a tougher league to beat, with most books offering pretty tight lines, but with the right tools, you can give yourself an edge. Bet smarter, trust the numbers, and let the data guide your decisions.
