The biggest news over the past day was Josh Gordon’s trade from the Browns to the New England Patriots. It’s a significant trade, but nothing that will drastically alter either team’s (yes, the Browns have title “aspirations”) chances of winning the Super Bowl. Well, unless you’re the guys at SportsLine.
According to our projections, the #Patriots gain a full win with Josh Gordon, going from 11 to 12. Chances of winning the Super Bowl almost double from 16% to 27%. pic.twitter.com/LKyX1g3BrQ
— SportsLine (@SportsLine) September 17, 2018
In case you’re not familiar with SportsLine – they’re a sports betting and daily fantasy service. Also, known as a tout. They have a team of data scientists that provide projections and numbers, and you can have their information. Of course, for a fee! They’re affiliated with CBS Sports – oh, wow, they must be a big deal! No, they’re not. Not only are they not a big deal, but they show no actual proof that they win at sports betting or daily fantasy sports or whatever other shit they are selling.
Oh, and by the way…
Josh Gordon Isn’t Worth That Much
Let’s not even get into the fact that the wide receiver is notoriously unreliable. Him not failing a drug test or getting into trouble is undoubtedly far higher than perhaps any other receiver in the league, sans Martavis Bryant. SportsLine then added this tweet to their ridiculous increase of Super Bowl betting odds:
Even if Gordon started and played every game – there is no possible way this makes the Patriots’ Super Bowl chances jump from 16% to 27%. In no world is that possible. One player, even if it were Tom Brady, would not impact a team’s chances that much.
Remember, an injury to a prominent player, such as a starting quarterback, is probably only worth 2-3 points at the most against the spread. A running back, wide receiver, or defense back is worth far less. Even saying a player is worth “x number of points,” isn’t logical when it comes to NFL betting.
As we know, the key numbers when betting on NFL football are 3 and 7. A player isn’t worth a certain amount of points because numbers that surround 3 and seven are worth far more than other numbers. So, this all this talk about “how much a player is worth?” in relation to the point spread, needs to be a topic that dies altogether. I realize SportsLine was referring to their, clearly incorrect, algorithm, but it’s a persistent theme these days to overvalue individual players when it comes to their point spread impact and future title chances.
Since sports betting has been regulated nationwide – there has been an unbelievable amount of misinformation (or outright lies) that have been presented to bettors as facts. SportsLine has been pushing their BS for years now, but more and more sites and sports betting “journalists” are getting in on the action. The situation will continue to get worse.
Be very careful who you trust with sports betting advice. Paying for picks is not something we advise, but there can be honest people in this industry. However, the clear majority are snake oil salesmen. The reality behind betting sports is that it takes hard work and dedication and paying someone to give you gambling advice (especially someone not reputable) isn’t usually the way to become a profitable sports bettor.
About the Author
Joseph Falchetti
Editor-in-Chief, Pro Sports Bettor and Casino Expert
Joe is the author of the majority of sports betting pages on SBS and he serves as a gambling consultant to our content team. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst, and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.
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